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Green Plains Inc.

Rank #456Decline

GPRE · Nasdaq · Basic Materials

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) — Rank #456 by gross profitability (GP/assets 0.08) · ROE -13.9% · Piotroski F-Score 5 / 9.

As-of 2026-09-15 · CIK 0001309402 · all metrics point-in-time as of the filing date.

About

Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally.

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It operates in two segments, Ethanol Production, and Agribusiness and Energy Services. The company produces, stores, and transports ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and renewable corn oil. It is also involved in the grain procurement and commodity marketing businesses; and marketing ethanol for a third-party producer, as well as buys and sells ethanol, distiller grains, renewable corn oil, grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. In addition, the company provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc.

was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

Industry
Chemicals
Sector
Basic Materials
State
IA
Filer Category
Accelerated filer
Fiscal Year End
December 31

Price History

GPRE-57.8% · -15.8% CAGRSPY+80.5% · +12.5% CAGR

Company Snapshot

P/E, P/B, and dividend yield matter most — book value provides a floor.

Market Cap

$1.02B

P/E (annual)

—

P/S (annual)

0.5

P/B

1.2

P/OCF (annual)

9.2

Shareholder Yield

-5.7%

Employees

642

Industry

Chemicals

Exchange

Nasdaq

Signal Flags

2 green1 yellow2 red
Revenue growth acceleratingGrowth rate increasing year over year
Sequential beat (rev + EPS)Both revenue and EPS exceeded prior quarter — 1-quarter streak
Dilution above 2%Annual share count increase exceeds 2%. May be acceptable for high-growth companies funding talent via stock compensation
Revenue declining YoYRevenue contracted year over year
Operating margin decliningOperating margin lower than prior year

Quality Profile

Profitability

1/1 pass
GP / assets
0.08
Return on equity
-13.9%
Gross margin trend
PASS

Safety

1/1 pass
Balance-sheet safety
PASS
Debt / equity
0.91
Current ratio
1.99×
Net cash
-$298.31M

Cash Flow

3/3 pass
Positive FCF
PASS
Cash-backed earnings
PASS
Accruals healthy
PASS
SBC / revenue
0.8%

Growth

0/2 pass
Revenue growth
-14.9%
Piotroski F-Score
5 / 9
Share dilution
5.8%

Terry Smith quality gate

Passes 0/5 Terry Smith thresholds

2 of 5 thresholds not computable from filed data.

What Growth Is Priced In

Implied revenue growth (10Y)

2.2%

incredible deal

The annual FCF growth rate today's price requires over a 10-year horizon (discount rate 10%, terminal growth 2.5%).

Dilution drag: 5.8% — per-share value needs a total required return of 8.0% once share-count change is priced in.

vs. own 6-year median revenue growth: -12.5%

Cost-of-equity sensitivity (implied growth at different discount rates)

r = 8%

-1.8%

r = 10% (base)

2.2%

r = 12%

5.7%

Net debt / market cap: 30.3%— material leverage inflates the implied growth read.

Note: current FCF margin is 1.8σ above its historical mean — implied growth may understate valuation risk if the margin reverts.

Base FCF: $73.7M3Y mean FCF: -$34.4M

Valuation History

Current multiple vs historical range at each filing date. Band spans 25th-75th percentile.

P / E

Price / diluted EPS

N/A
13.1xmed 39.6x84.6x

P / S

Price / revenue per share

0.5xExpensive
0.2xmed 0.4x0.5x

P / B

Price / book value per share

1.3xFair
0.5xmed 1.2x2.1x

P / GP

Price / gross profit per share

7.3xFair
3.2xmed 7.4x14.0x

Asset value and restructuring potential (balance-sheet strength) are the primary reads at this stage.

Profitability

Gross profitability (GP / assets)

0.08

Primary signal (Novy-Marx).

9th pctl of 34 SIC 28 peers

Return on equity

-13.9%

Gross margin

6.5%

0th pctl of 34 SIC 28 peers

Revenue growth (YoY)

-14.9%

Gross margin improving

Margin trend vs prior year.

PASS

Operating Leverage

2022202320242025
Revenue vs COGS
Revenue vs OpEx
Op. Income vs Revenue

Growth

Revenue CAGR (3Y)

-17.0%

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

1.7%

Earnings CAGR (3Y)

—

FCF CAGR (3Y)

—

Anti-fragile safety

Balance-sheet safety

Composite anti-fragile check.

PASS

Debt / equity

0.91

40th pctl of 31 SIC 28 peers (best = lowest)

Current ratio

1.99×

33rd pctl of 34 SIC 28 peers

Quick ratio

0.84×

Net cash

-$298.31M

Cash & equivalents minus total debt.

Recession resistance

Revenue through recessions

Worst single-year YoY revenue decline, 17 years of history

Weak
2008-2009 (GFC)
N/AN/A
2020 (COVID)
-20.4%Significant decline
Worst year on record(any fiscal year, not recession-limited)
-37.1%Significant decline

Cash-flow health

Free cash flow

$73.67M

Operating cash flow minus capex.

Positive free cash flow

PASS

FCF / net income

1.61

Cash-backing of earnings.

FCF/NI divergence

Unfavorable divergence (yellow flag).

PASS

Accruals healthy

Cash-backed earnings.

PASS

SBC / revenue

0.8%

Stock-based comp intensity.

Dividend safety

Composite score

1.8 / 5

Weak
Payout ratio
N/A0/5 Weak
FCF coverage
102.17×5/5 Strong
Dividend growth streak
0 yr0/5 Weak
Balance-sheet health
D/E 0.91 · IC N/A2/5 Fair

Piotroski F-Score

F-Score

5 / 9

Fundamental-strength score (0-9).

Lifecycle Phase History

20202025
Decline
Hypergrowth
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