Quality & anti-fragile scorecards
Every scored company, ranked by gross profitability (the Novy-Marx primary signal), with the anti-fragile balance-sheet checklist and a Trajectory rating — the direction of each business’s fundamentals over its own multi-year, point-in-time SEC filing history. Click a Trajectory badge for the per-metric breakdown, or a ticker for the full scorecard.
Trajectory is a monitoring diagnostic of business direction, not a prediction of returns.
We publish our track record and our failures
A live portfolio follows these rankings. Every decision goes into a log that only grows. Ideas that failed stay on the page next to the ones that worked.
Track record
2.2 months
Downside capture
0.50
Ideas tested
0
Ideas rejected
0
Too early to judge. This record is too short for statistical significance.
Market context
CALMmonitoring onlyBroad market regime at the time of this reading — evidence for the thesis-broken vs market-panic call. A stressed market makes a holding-level drawdown more likely to be systematic (panic) than idiosyncratic (broken). Never a selection, sizing, or trade signal.
| indicator | value | reading |
|---|---|---|
| SPY drawdown from peak | -1.2% | near highs |
| SPY trailing 3-month return | 3.3% | |
| credit stress (HYG/LQD z-score) | +0.6 | credit markets calm |
Hyperscaler capex
COMFORTABLEmonitoring onlyCombined capex and operating cash flow across 5 hyperscalers — an AI-infrastructure-cycle read. Combined OCF approaching or falling below combined capex signals the buildout turning free-cash-flow-negative system-wide. Never a selection, sizing, or trade signal.
| company | capex | OCF | FY end |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $131.82B | $139.51B | 2025-12-31 |
| MSFT | $115.95B | $182.94B | 2026-06-30 |
| GOOGL | $91.45B | $164.71B | 2025-12-31 |
| META | $69.69B | $115.80B | 2025-12-31 |
| ORCL | $55.66B | $31.98B | 2026-05-31 |
As-of 2026-10-30 · 441 companies · ranked by gross profitability.