Quality Investor

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Rank #383Capital Return

CF · NYSE · Basic Materials

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) — Rank #383 by gross profitability (GP/assets 0.18) · ROE 25.3% · Piotroski F-Score 8 / 9.

As-of 2026-09-15 · CIK 0001324404 · all metrics point-in-time as of the filing date.

About

CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally.

Show more

It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate; diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid products. It serves cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users.

The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.

Industry
Agricultural Inputs
Sector
Basic Materials
State
DE
Filer Category
Large accelerated filer
Fiscal Year End
December 31

Price History

CF+225.3% · +26.6% CAGRSPY+80.5% · +12.5% CAGR

Company Snapshot

P/E and reverse DCF are the primary valuation lenses at this stage.

Market Cap

$20.43B

P/E (annual)

15.1

P/S (annual)

2.9

P/B

3.6

P/OCF (annual)

7.4

Shareholder Yield

11.8%

Employees

2,900

Industry

Agricultural Inputs

Exchange

NYSE

Signal Flags

3 green
Revenue growth acceleratingGrowth rate increasing year over year
Operating leverage expandingOperating income growing faster than revenue
Sequential beat (rev + EPS)Both revenue and EPS exceeded prior quarter — 2-quarter streak

Quality Profile

Profitability

1/1 pass
GP / assets
0.18
Return on equity
25.3%
Gross margin trend
PASS

Safety

1/1 pass
Balance-sheet safety
PASS
Debt / equity
0.69
Current ratio
4.86×
Net cash
-$736.00M

Cash Flow

3/3 pass
Positive FCF
PASS
Cash-backed earnings
PASS
Accruals healthy
PASS
SBC / revenue
0.6%

Growth

2/2 pass
Revenue growth
19.3%
Piotroski F-Score
8 / 9
Share dilution
-10.2%

Terry Smith quality gate

Passes 2/5 Terry Smith thresholds

What Growth Is Priced In

Implied revenue growth (10Y)

0.9%

incredible deal

The annual FCF growth rate today's price requires over a 10-year horizon (discount rate 10%, terminal growth 2.5%).

Buyback tailwind: -10.2% — per-share value needs a total required return of -9.4% once share-count change is priced in.

vs. own 6-year median revenue growth: 4.6%

within its own history

Cost-of-equity sensitivity (implied growth at different discount rates)

r = 8%

-3.0%

r = 10% (base)

0.9%

r = 12%

4.3%

Net debt / market cap: 3.4%

Base FCF: $1.8B3Y mean FCF: $1.9B

Valuation History

Current multiple vs historical range at each filing date. Band spans 25th-75th percentile.

P / E

Price / diluted EPS

10.7xCheap
5.3xmed 17.4x33.1x

P / S

Price / revenue per share

2.2xFair
1.6xmed 2.2x2.6x

P / B

Price / book value per share

3.2xFair
1.4xmed 3.1x5.3x

P / GP

Price / gross profit per share

5.7xCheap
3.0xmed 7.1x20.9x

P / FCF

Price / free cash flow per share

8.7xExpensive
5.2xmed 7.8x11.3x

FCF yield, shareholder yield, and buyback activity are the primary reads at this stage.

Profitability

Gross profitability (GP / assets)

0.18

Primary signal (Novy-Marx).

27th pctl of 34 SIC 28 peers

Return on equity

25.3%

Gross margin

38.5%

39th pctl of 34 SIC 28 peers

Revenue growth (YoY)

19.3%

RPO growth (YoY)

4.5%

Remaining performance obligations growth — RPO > revenue = forward demand building.

Gross margin improving

Margin trend vs prior year.

PASS

Operating Leverage

2022202320242025
Revenue vs COGS
Revenue vs OpEx
Op. Income vs Revenue

Growth

Revenue CAGR (3Y)

-14.1%

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

11.4%

Earnings CAGR (3Y)

FCF CAGR (3Y)

-19.1%

Anti-fragile safety

Balance-sheet safety

Composite anti-fragile check.

PASS

Debt / equity

0.69

57th pctl of 31 SIC 28 peers (best = lowest)

Current ratio

4.86×

82nd pctl of 34 SIC 28 peers

Quick ratio

4.14×

Net cash

-$736.00M

Cash & equivalents minus total debt.

Cash-flow health

Free cash flow

$1.80B

Operating cash flow minus capex.

Positive free cash flow

PASS

FCF / net income

0.24

Cash-backing of earnings.

FCF/NI divergence

Unfavorable divergence (yellow flag).

PASS

Accruals healthy

Cash-backed earnings.

PASS

SBC / revenue

0.6%

Stock-based comp intensity.

Dividend safety

Composite score

3.5 / 5

Good
Payout ratio
22.4%5/5 Strong
FCF coverage
5.53×5/5 Strong
Dividend growth streak
0 yr0/5 Weak
Balance-sheet health
D/E 0.69 · IC 14.84×4/5 Strong

Piotroski F-Score

F-Score

8 / 9

Fundamental-strength score (0-9).

Lifecycle Phase History

20202025
Decline
Hypergrowth
Capital Return