Quality Investor

Blue Bird Corporation

Rank #269Capital Return

BLBD · Nasdaq · Industrials

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) — Rank #269 by gross profitability (GP/assets 0.26) · ROE 19.5% · Piotroski F-Score 8 / 9.

As-of 2026-09-15 · CIK 0001589526 · all metrics point-in-time as of the filing date.

About

Blue Bird Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses in the United States, Canada, and internationally.

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The company operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. It offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative power options through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses, as well as diesel engines. The company also sells replacement bus parts; and provides extended warranties related to its products. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through drop ship and a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; independent service centers; and maintains a parts distribution center. It has a collaboration with Ford Motor Company to create the next generation of F-53/F-59 commercial stripped chassis.

Blue Bird Corporation was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.

Industry
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Sector
Industrials
Filer Category
Large accelerated filer
Fiscal Year End
October 3

Price History

BLBD+204.3% · +24.9% CAGRSPY+80.5% · +12.5% CAGR

Company Snapshot

P/E and reverse DCF are the primary valuation lenses at this stage.

Market Cap

$1.97B

P/E (annual)

16.0

P/S (annual)

1.3

P/B

3.0

P/OCF (annual)

11.2

Shareholder Yield

1.4%

Employees

2,008

Industry

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Exchange

Nasdaq

Signal Flags

3 green
Operating leverage expandingOperating income growing faster than revenue
Deferred revenue growingRevenue and deferred revenue both growing — retention signal
Sequential beat (rev + EPS)Both revenue and EPS exceeded prior quarter — 3-quarter streak

Quality Profile

Profitability

1/1 pass
GP / assets
0.26
Return on equity
19.5%
Gross margin trend
PASS

Safety

1/1 pass
Balance-sheet safety
PASS
Debt / equity
0.78
Current ratio
1.64×
Net cash
$30.01M

Cash Flow

3/3 pass
Positive FCF
PASS
Cash-backed earnings
PASS
Accruals healthy
PASS
SBC / revenue
1.0%

Growth

2/2 pass
Revenue growth
9.9%
Piotroski F-Score
8 / 9
Share dilution
-1.4%

Terry Smith quality gate

Passes 3/5 Terry Smith thresholds

What Growth Is Priced In

Implied revenue growth (10Y)

2.1%

incredible deal

The annual FCF growth rate today's price requires over a 10-year horizon (discount rate 10%, terminal growth 2.5%).

Buyback tailwind: -1.4% — per-share value needs a total required return of 0.7% once share-count change is priced in.

vs. own 6-year median revenue growth: 18.0%

within its own history

Cost-of-equity sensitivity (implied growth at different discount rates)

r = 8%

-1.8%

r = 10% (base)

2.1%

r = 12%

5.6%

Net debt / market cap: -1.5%

Base FCF: $153.3M3Y mean FCF: $120.2M

Valuation History

Current multiple vs historical range at each filing date. Band spans 25th-75th percentile.

P / E

Price / diluted EPS

14.1xCheap
13.6xmed 22.6x37.2x

P / S

Price / revenue per share

1.2xExpensive
0.5xmed 0.6x1.7x

P / B

Price / book value per share

7.1xCheap
7.1xmed 17.6x961.4x

P / GP

Price / gross profit per share

5.9xFair
3.6xmed 5.3x36.4x

P / FCF

Price / free cash flow per share

11.8xCheap
6.3xmed 13.3x30.5x

FCF yield, shareholder yield, and buyback activity are the primary reads at this stage.

Profitability

Gross profitability (GP / assets)

0.26

Primary signal (Novy-Marx).

81st pctl of 22 SIC 37 peers

Return on equity

19.5%

Gross margin

20.5%

48th pctl of 22 SIC 37 peers

Revenue growth (YoY)

9.9%

Gross margin improving

Margin trend vs prior year.

PASS

Operating Leverage

2022202320242025
Revenue vs COGS
Revenue vs OpEx
Op. Income vs Revenue

Growth

Revenue CAGR (3Y)

22.7%

Revenue CAGR (5Y)

Earnings CAGR (3Y)

FCF CAGR (3Y)

Anti-fragile safety

Balance-sheet safety

Composite anti-fragile check.

PASS

Debt / equity

0.78

75th pctl of 21 SIC 37 peers (best = lowest)

Current ratio

1.64×

24th pctl of 22 SIC 37 peers

Quick ratio

0.54×

Net cash

$30.01M

Cash & equivalents minus total debt.

Cash-flow health

Free cash flow

$153.34M

Operating cash flow minus capex.

Positive free cash flow

PASS

FCF / net income

0.20

Cash-backing of earnings.

FCF/NI divergence

Unfavorable divergence (yellow flag).

PASS

Accruals healthy

Cash-backed earnings.

PASS

SBC / revenue

1.0%

Stock-based comp intensity.

Piotroski F-Score

F-Score

8 / 9

Fundamental-strength score (0-9).

Lifecycle Phase History

20212025
Decline
Op. Leverage
Startup
Hypergrowth
Capital Return